Blog Posts
Sand In The Market Machine: Negative Carry In A Lot Of Places
Carry is the lubricant of investing. Carry, as we define it here, is the difference between what one can earn on an asset and what one pays to finance the asset purchase. When carry is negative, it costs more to finance an investment than the expected cashflow on that investment. […]
The Bond Market Crash – And What One Can Do About It Now
Many participants in the financial markets don’t remember the bubble and bust of the early 2000s. Almost 25 years ago the Nasdaq index reached a peak of about 4400 on March 31, 2000, and then plunged to a low of 925 on September 30, 2002. Total loss of almost 79% […]
Harry Markowitz: A Man Who Thought (And Saw) Differently
The financial community was saddened to hear of the passing of Harry Markowitz on June 22. Not only was Harry a pioneer in many fields and a Nobel laureate, he was also an amazing, friendly and open person. Since he was an advisor to my firm for a couple of […]
GITA: Gold Is The Alternative
For the decade that preceded 2022, the acronym TINA (There Is No Alternative) applied well to stocks . As central banks used every excuse to flood the system with liquidity, yields were driven to zero, and it seemed that the only way to get any return was to buy stocks. […]
What’s Next For Investors After Silicon Valley Bank
Whenever the yield curve inverts as much as it has inverted in recent days, things break. First crypto, then the UK financial system (and prime minister), and now a large regional bank with outsized influence. The dominoes seem to be falling on cue and there is probably more to come. […]
Gamma Mama! Could 0DTE Options be the Cause of the Next Market Meltdown
If the GameStop phenomenon of a couple of years ago did not convince us that options trading are the new opioid for the financial masses, what we are going to discuss today should. And it can influence your financial health! Having traded options across all assets for the last thirty […]
Looking Back, Looking Ahead
A Happy New Year to All! While 2022 turned out to be one of the worst years for financial assets, it turned out to be one of the best years for common sense. A decade of macro distortions caused by central banks were unwound, as central bankers realized that they […]
With a Little Help from My Friends
I recently listened to the angst filled cover version of the Beatles classic “With A Little Help From My Friends”, by bluesy crooner Joe Cocker. If you have not heard it recently, please quit reading right now and play it. Here is how the chorus goes: Oh, I get by […]
Being Mulish: I Buy Treasuries Direct
If you listen to the Fed, this is what you will hear: There will be no pivot! That is, they are not planning to lower rates any time soon come hell or high water. Each time there is a mini-hiccup in the global economy or the markets, many look for […]
It Ain’t Over Until the Banks Cry Uncle
I would like to thank the New York Fed for inviting the public (virtually) to the conference last Friday on financial stability considerations for monetary policy, not the least because it allowed the masses to hear the “state of the art” on the interaction of markets and monetary policy. With […]
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