Thinking
Trading Sardines: The Case Of Currency Hedged Negative Yielding Bonds
You might have heard the story about the three traders who decided to go into the business of trading sardines. The first trader bought a can of sardines for $5. He sold the same can of sardines to the second trader for $10, doubling his money. The second trader again […]
Watch The Fed Walk-Back The Walk-Back
For traders it has become something of a game to forecast how quickly Mr. Market can make the newly “data-dependent” Fed change its tone. In the fourth quarter as the Fed Chair became somewhat hawkish, the market sold off and discovered that the pain point and the strike of the […]
The Fed ‘Put’ And The Return Of BTD (Buy The Dip)
Three “rules” I learnt almost thirty years ago still hold true today: (1) Don’t fight the Fed, (2) The Fed targets asset prices even though they won’t admit it, (3) The market will test the Fed’s resolve. I believe the truth of the first two statements has been verified yet […]
“Tech Crash Echo”: It’s Beginning To Feel A Bit Like 2000
Everyone in the market remembers the Global Financial Crisis. Very few on trading desks remember the Tech crash of 2000. I remember it all too well after the partying of 1999: it was exhilarating (or painful if you were short) to watch the exponential rally in Tech and dotcom stocks […]
How To Ride A Bucking Bull: Stay Calm And Hang On…For Now
This bull market in U.S. stocks is now the longest, and by many measures the most hated in history. After almost quintupling since the global financial crisis of 2008, I look back and see an incredible rally that has never been totally convincing. Behind the bull market lurk apparent culprits […]
Making the Most of Spread Product Tails
Price action since the February volatility shock suggests that investors continue to grow more confident in the durability of US risk assets. Central bank quantitative easing (QE), robust corporate earnings, share buybacks, and tax incentive-driven repatriation have muted the negative impact of unexpected election outcomes, strains on geopolitical and economic […]
Time To Bail Out Of Bonds Into The Relative Safety Of Stocks?
Trouble is afoot, again, for the bond markets. Could bonds today be more unsafe than stocks? For the long maturities in the global bond market, it appears so, at least in the near term. Despite the jawboning known as “forward guidance”, central bank support for bonds is naturally beginning to […]
More Volatility Means More Selling
Remember when just a few months ago, every dip in the stock market was met with a strong bid. Now, it seems, every rally is met with strong selling. There are several reasons for this shift, which is entirely rational. Most important is a sharp rise in volatility, which has […]
Buying Stocks Now Is Betting On Buybacks
It is no secret that a large portion of the rally in equities over the last few years, and especially the rebound from the lows of early February, has been bolstered by the record amounts of capital sitting in the coffers of American corporations which, has naturally found its way […]
The Great Momentum Crash
All good things might not come to an end, but they certainly attract attention and ultimately create the potential for excess, as witnessed in the stock-market crash of the past few weeks. Nowhere in the investment world has this been more visible than in the quantitative investment strategy known as […]
LongTail Alpha, LLC (“LongTail”) is an SEC-registered investment adviser and a registered CTA and CPO that provides investment advisory services and investment management services to a select set of clients and pooled investment vehicles. None of LongTail’s services are intended to represent a complete investment program.
The publications on this website are for educational, illustrative and informational purposes only and do not represent investment advice or a recommendation of or as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any particular security, financial instrument, strategy or investment product, or any LongTail investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended and/or undertaken by LongTail), or any non-investment related content, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for a client’s portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Nothing contained herein is intended to predict the performance of any investment. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will match the assumptions or that actual returns will match any expected returns.
The publications on this website do not take into account any particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs, should not be construed as legal, tax, financial or other advice, and are not to be relied upon in making an investment or other decision.
Certain information contained herein constitutes forward-looking statements (including projections, targets, hypotheticals, ratios, estimates, returns, performance, opinions, activity and other events contained or referenced herein), which can be identified by the use of terms such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “intend,” “continue” or “believe” or other variations (or the negatives thereof) thereof. Due to various risks, assumptions, uncertainties and actual events, including those discussed herein and in the respective analyses, actual results, returns or performance may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. As a result, you should not rely on such forward-looking statements in making any investment decisions.
Certain information contained herein has been obtained or derived from unaffiliated third-party sources and, while LongTail believes this information to be reliable, neither LongTail nor any of its affiliates make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, sequence, adequacy or completeness of the information.
The information contained herein and the opinions expressed herein are those of LongTail as of the date of publication, are subject to change due to market conditions and without notice, and have not been approved or verified by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”), or by any state securities authority.
This publication is not intended for redistribution or public use without LongTail’s express written consent.