Thinking
Monetizing Volatility Spikes
This week has been one for the record books…if you are a volatility trading nerd like the three of us, it was also a very active, and sleepless week. As we tell our clients, this is what you pay us for – we stay awake so you can sleep. One […]
How The Carry Trade Crashed The Market, Again, And What Comes Next
Over the last few days, the sudden volatility in the markets has resulted in clients, friends and family (especially my wife) all wondering what just happened, and more important, what happens next. For sure everyone by now has read that one of the culprits was the action by the Bank […]
Making Good in Bad(water) Markets
Two weeks ago I had the distinct pleasure (some may say pain instead of pleasure), of finishing the 135 mile Badwater 135 race, the self-proclaimed “toughest foot-race in the world”, in just under 40 hours. I was supported by an excellent crew that consisted of one elite runner who is […]
David vs. Goliath: Why Small Caps Killed Large Caps As Inflation (Barely) Softened
The big keep getting bigger, until they don’t. Since nothing grows to the moon, in the markets there always comes a time when momentum reverses sharply, and the unloved become loved and the loved become hated. In the dot-com crash, the signs of an impending recession resulted in high flying […]
Is the Stock Market in a Bubble
One of the most heavily discussed topics in the financial media today is the observation that most of the gains in the stock market are being driven by just a handful of names, and this, as in past episodes of market melt-ups and melt-downs, may be a precursory signal for […]
Levered Single Stocks ETFs on NVDA
In a piece I published last week in this forum (here) I mentioned how the availability of explicit leverage to some, but not to all, has frequently resulted in the tendency for all participants to move off an optimal portfolio into increasingly risky securities. My conclusion was that similar to […]
Markowitz Bites Back… Again
In December of 2006, which is almost 17 years ago, I wrote the original version of this short paper titled “Markowitz Bites Back: The Failure of CAPM, Compression of Risky Asset Spreads and Paths Back to Normalcy”. It was influenced by a simple yet elegant publication by Harry Markowitz, the […]
Getting Paid To Hedge Stock Market Risk
Wouldn’t we all like to get something for nothing? Have our cake and eat it too? Especially when it comes to buying “insurance” on the stock market? As someone who specializes in the esoteric field of “Tail Risk Hedging”, I am always asked by investors whether there is a cheaper […]
The New Bond King Is… The 2-Year Treasury Note
I had the pleasure of working for over a decade for the greatest bond investor of all time – Bill Gross. Recently, with another Bill — Ackman — publicly going short the bond market and then covering the short and advertising the exploit in a tweet, many market commentators crowned […]
Sand In The Market Machine: Negative Carry In A Lot Of Places
Carry is the lubricant of investing. Carry, as we define it here, is the difference between what one can earn on an asset and what one pays to finance the asset purchase. When carry is negative, it costs more to finance an investment than the expected cashflow on that investment. […]
LongTail Alpha, LLC (“LongTail”) is an SEC-registered investment adviser and a registered CTA and CPO that provides investment advisory services and investment management services to a select set of clients and pooled investment vehicles. None of LongTail’s services are intended to represent a complete investment program.
The publications on this website are for educational, illustrative and informational purposes only and do not represent investment advice or a recommendation of or as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any particular security, financial instrument, strategy or investment product, or any LongTail investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended and/or undertaken by LongTail), or any non-investment related content, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for a client’s portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Nothing contained herein is intended to predict the performance of any investment. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will match the assumptions or that actual returns will match any expected returns.
The publications on this website do not take into account any particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs, should not be construed as legal, tax, financial or other advice, and are not to be relied upon in making an investment or other decision.
Certain information contained herein constitutes forward-looking statements (including projections, targets, hypotheticals, ratios, estimates, returns, performance, opinions, activity and other events contained or referenced herein), which can be identified by the use of terms such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “intend,” “continue” or “believe” or other variations (or the negatives thereof) thereof. Due to various risks, assumptions, uncertainties and actual events, including those discussed herein and in the respective analyses, actual results, returns or performance may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. As a result, you should not rely on such forward-looking statements in making any investment decisions.
Certain information contained herein has been obtained or derived from unaffiliated third-party sources and, while LongTail believes this information to be reliable, neither LongTail nor any of its affiliates make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, sequence, adequacy or completeness of the information.
The information contained herein and the opinions expressed herein are those of LongTail as of the date of publication, are subject to change due to market conditions and without notice, and have not been approved or verified by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”), or by any state securities authority.
This publication is not intended for redistribution or public use without LongTail’s express written consent.