Archive for Month: April 2025
What’s Wrong With US Treasury’s Duration?
For someone who has now traded bonds professionally for over 30 years, the recent behavior of the bond market has been nothing short of incredible. For those who think of the bond market as a shelter from equity market storms, the results have been mixed, to be charitable. On the […]
Reliability Matters! Tariff Tumult Market Scorecard (So Far)
The past few days in the markets have brought forth the fundamental question of portfolio construction and asset allocation: in periods of stress and volatility, how can one keep a portfolio resilient? Anyone can throw money at the stock market and look like a genius when it is on a […]
Long-Term Tail Hedging Is Still Cheap
While the events of the last week have resulted in a sharp flight out of stocks and a spike in short-term volatility, long-term volatility has barely budged. As a consequence, even credit spreads, though widening a little bit, have barely registered any possibility of a recession and credit defaults. In […]
Games Countries Play: Tariffs, Threats and Tail Risks
As a market participant today, it is clear to most that the dominant driver of market performance, at least in the short term, is likely to be how the global game of tariffs and threats plays out. What is not clear is (1) What type of game it is (2) […]
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